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Index > Heap > Microsoft income drops for third straight quarter

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LocoDelAssembly
Your code has a bug


Joined: 06 May 2005
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LocoDelAssembly
Oh I see, sorry for the misunderstanding.
Post 06 Mar 2009, 17:53
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revolution
When all else fails, read the source


Joined: 24 Aug 2004
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revolution
Okay, so just hypothetically speaking here: Would it be 'immoral' to short sell stock from "GreatOpenSourceProgrammersThatMakeFreeWareForAll Inc."? Or, as HyperVista might put it, betting that they suck.
Post 06 Mar 2009, 17:58
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HyperVista



Joined: 18 Apr 2005
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HyperVista
Really no need to say sorry. It's a difficult concept to understand. There are some pretty wierd ways you can make and lose money in the stock market.
Some people have gotten arrested by "shorting" stocks in a company and immediately start false rumor on the internet about that company, driving the price downward ... Twisted Evil
revolution wrote:
Okay, so just hypothetically speaking here: Would it be 'immoral' to short sell stock from "GreatOpenSourceProgrammersThatMakeFreeWareForAll Inc."?

Hmmm.... interesting thought exercize. Since their profits can't come from their products (Freeware) we'll have to assume their revenue stream comes from click-through ads on their page (like Google profits) or something similar. Lets say for the sake of this exercize that their profits do come from click-through ads because millions of people are hitting the website to get all that great free software. If you know, or think that the EU or Obama admistration are about to ban or heavily tax click-through revenue, you might be justified in selling short. Very Happy
Post 06 Mar 2009, 17:58
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tom tobias



Joined: 09 Sep 2003
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tom tobias
LocoDelAssembly wrote:
Oh I see, sorry for the misunderstanding.
Not to worry, as HyperVista explained, "short selling" is definitely counterintuitive, but the point is that drhowarddrfine has been entirely consistent, his idea of shorting M$ was to predict that the stock price would drop because it is a company that is not doing well, as the original post suggested, based upon (a) decreased revenue stream, and (b) inability to predict earnings for the remainder of 2009.
HyperVista gave an excellent description of shorting, I would only add, not to muddy the waters, that there is another method of "shorting" stocks, besides the classic method described so well above. This is a relatively "new" method, well, not really new, as we think of new in computer science, but perhaps "recent" would be more appropriate. I refer to ETF, electronic traded funds. Here's a link. There are ETF's for ALL kinds of stocks, including technology stocks, mining stocks, consumer stocks, real estate, manufacturing, and so on.... This link above relates to DOUBLE shorts, i.e. these ETF's INCREASE in value at TWICE the rate that the underlying stocks DECREASE in value. edit: pm if interested...
Here's a good place to investigate stocks:
Post 07 Mar 2009, 13:26
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tom tobias



Joined: 09 Sep 2003
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tom tobias
Praising Apple + Google, and dismissing M$, on 27 February, 2009, DrHowardDrFine wrote:

In the meantime, Apple and Google increased in record numbers.
In rebuttal, on the 28 February, 2009, comrade wrote:

No, they did not.
To gather some evidence to support either position, I suggested that we follow half a dozen stocks for a few weeks, and so, I thought today, I would report back, after a little over three weeks time, on how these hypothetical investments have done, during this impressive rally in the market==a rally which some have suggested is greater than any in recent history, at least greater than that of any other period of time since the great depression of the early 1930's.

I had suggested, as stocks worthy of following, in addition to those three debated by the two quotes above, CHT, CEO, and PWE. I had suggested these three, based upon selection criteria originally described by Benjamin Graham--low debt, low P/E, high current ratio, low price/book, high profit compared with others in the same industry.
Let's see how all six stocks fared, since they were "purchased" on Monday, 02 March using the prices at the close of business on that day. For comparison to the market as a whole, let's use three indices, DJIA, Nasdaq, and S&P500.

27 April 2009: edit: %Gain here, below, represents the gain from 02 March to 24 April 2009:

Security Name....price on 02March....price on 24March...24April...%Gain
DJIA..................6,763.......................7,749...............8,076.... + 16
Nasdaq..............1,322.......................1,528...............1,694.....+ 28
S&P500..............700...........................813................866........+ 24

MSFT.................16.15........................17.88..............20.91.....+ 29
AAPL..................89.31......................106.49.............123.90....+ 39
GOOG...............337.99......................344.07.............389.49... + 15

CHT...................15.35.........................18.98..............17.53....+ 14
CEO...................85.93.......................104.85.............115.55....+ 34
PWE...................08.83.........................11.13..............11.36....+ 28

edit 27 april 2009

Smile


Last edited by tom tobias on 27 Apr 2009, 13:18; edited 1 time in total
Post 25 Mar 2009, 21:49
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tom tobias



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tom tobias
Here is another reason for selling Apple short, now, i.e. besides my opinion that all stocks are headed down, and technology stocks in particular, with AAPL plunging most of all.

I have never understood people's fascination with Apple and IBM. Their products have always been overpriced relative to performance, in my opinion.
Confused
Post 27 Apr 2009, 12:50
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drhowarddrfine



Joined: 10 Jul 2007
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drhowarddrfine
Actually, Microsoft dropped almost 60% while Apple was around 50%. Apple looks like it could form a cup/handle pattern, if you know what that is. I don't think I'd be shorting stocks at this time. If anything, I just bought another small chunk of one tech stock last week at 18.22 which, today, is at 23.

It looks like it will be a long time before Microsoft gets back much higher than the low 20s again.
Post 27 Apr 2009, 20:03
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tom tobias



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tom tobias
drhowarddrfine's prescience is again readily visible from the data below, a month after his past prediction: (Oh, yes, almost forgot, and I am wrong again!)

Security Name....price on24April...price on 27 May...%Gain from 02 March
DJIA..........................8,076..........8,300................ + 23
Nasdaq......................1,694..........1,731................ + 31
S&P500........................866.............893................ + 27

MSFT..........................20.91...........20.13.............. + 24
AAPL.........................123.90..........133.05............. + 49
GOOG.......................389.49...........405.56............ + 20

CHT...........................17.53.............18.61............. + 21
CEO.........................115.55............124.81............ + 45
PWE...........................11.36..............12.70............ + 44

One last point, about dividend payments:
Umm, PWE, paid during the past three months, $0.43, so if one had purchased say, 100 shares at 08.83 (price in March 2009, when this thread commenced), total of $883.00, then, the dividend, projected to the end of the year, assuming that oil prices do not decline much more than their current price, would correspond to 4 * $43, or $172.
This gives a yield of 172/883, or 19%.
One could have instead purchased two shares of Google, or seven shares of Apple, neither of which pay any dividend, but then, on selling the stocks today, earned a tidy profit.
Let's see:
Google was selling back then, for about 338/share, so let's say one bought three shares, total investment 1014, sold them today for 406, i.e. 1218, difference of $204, the profit from this sale.
Apple: @ 89/share, one could have purchased ten shares, 890$, sold today for 134, i.e. 1,340, the difference is 450$, profit.
PWE: sold today at 12.7, = 1,270 subtracting 883, gives 387, plus the 43 dividend, = $430 profit.

So, clearly, drhowarddrfine was the most skillful in managing his finances. By the way, no, I did not sell my shares of PWE today.
Let's try this again, in December!!!! Google and Apple will continue to rise or fall, but they will never pay a dime of dividend, while Microsoft, for example, paid out $0.13/share for the past three months.

Over the long run, dividend paying stocks will defeat high rollers, most of the time. Google and Apple may be the exception, we'll see. I will continue to purchase Put options on Apple, til my death or my bankruptcy, whichever comes first.
Smile
Post 27 May 2009, 21:48
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tom tobias



Joined: 09 Sep 2003
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tom tobias
Security Name....price on24April...price on 27 May...price on 26 June ...%Gain from 02 March
DJIA..........................8,076..........8,300........................8,438.............................. + 25
Nasdaq......................1,694..........1,731.........................1,838............................. + 39
S&P500........................866.............893..........................918............................... + 31

MSFT..........................20.91...........20.13.......................23.38............................ + 45
AAPL.........................123.90..........133.05....................142.33........................... + 59
GOOG.......................389.49...........405.56....................424.18........................... + 25

CHT...........................17.53.............18.61......................19.94............................. + 30
CEO.........................115.55............124.81....................126.45............................ + 47
PWE...........................11.36..............12.70......................12.94............................ + 46

Having been wrong about so many other things, hasn't deterred me from continuing to make grotesque errors on this thread.

I am pessimistic. I think the market is heading down. I am "selling" my hypothetical portfolio, for some modest profits, and holding cash, until October....
Post 26 Jun 2009, 21:30
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drhowarddrfine



Joined: 10 Jul 2007
Posts: 535
drhowarddrfine
I agree. Frequently I see a peak in the spring and then the June swoon, only to have it start recovering around September. Sometimes you'll see the pickup in August but I think October is a little late, though not necessarily wrong.
Post 26 Jun 2009, 23:40
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