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drhowarddrfine



Joined: 10 Jul 2007
Posts: 535
drhowarddrfine
As I had predicted three months ago, Microsoft reported quarterly earnings this morning and they were dismal. Even worse than I thought they would be.

Operating income, net income and diluted earnings per share for the quarter were $5.94 billion, $4.17 billion and $0.47, declines of 8%, 11% and 6%, respectively, despite that during the quarter, Microsoft showcased significant new product by debuting Windows 7, Windows Azure, Office Web applications, Windows Server 2008 R2 and Office Communications Server 2007 R2.

Microsoft also states the future is uncertain. Chris Liddell, chief financial officer at Microsoft: "We are planning for economic uncertainty to continue through the remainder of the fiscal year, almost certainly leading to lower revenue and earnings for the second half relative to the previous year.

Microsoft also stated it is no longer able to offer quantitative revenue and EPS guidance for the balance of this fiscal year.
Post 22 Jan 2009, 14:26
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comrade



Joined: 16 Jun 2003
Posts: 1137
Location: Russian Federation
comrade
The fact that are able to stay profitable in this recession is phenomenal. A lot of its big clients have cutback on spending, so there is no surprise the profits went down.
Post 27 Feb 2009, 15:03
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drhowarddrfine



Joined: 10 Jul 2007
Posts: 535
drhowarddrfine
In the meantime, Apple and Google increased in record numbers.
Post 27 Feb 2009, 15:22
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comrade



Joined: 16 Jun 2003
Posts: 1137
Location: Russian Federation
comrade
No, they did not.
Post 28 Feb 2009, 10:33
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tom tobias



Joined: 09 Sep 2003
Posts: 1320
Location: usa
tom tobias
Data:
Apple and
Google charts for the past twelve months.
drhowarddrfine wrote:
In the meantime, Apple and Google increased in record numbers.
Increased what?

Revenues? ....................Apple
Sales?
Income/employee?
Net profit?
Dividend? .....................Google
Return on Equity?
Current Ratio?
Book Value?
Free Cash Flow?
Relative Strength?
50day moving average?
Earnings per share?

Yahoo Screener

As with any good program, the data section needs to be clearly defined.

Smile
Post 28 Feb 2009, 12:24
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drhowarddrfine



Joined: 10 Jul 2007
Posts: 535
drhowarddrfine
Post 28 Feb 2009, 16:03
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comrade



Joined: 16 Jun 2003
Posts: 1137
Location: Russian Federation
comrade
Revenue != profit
Post 01 Mar 2009, 03:05
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drhowarddrfine



Joined: 10 Jul 2007
Posts: 535
drhowarddrfine
And apples don't equal oranges but they had high and record revenue increases and it is revenue that drives a company.
Post 01 Mar 2009, 05:00
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Azu



Joined: 16 Dec 2008
Posts: 1160
Azu
comrade wrote:
Revenue != profit
The original post is about a certain company's revenue going down, so it only makes sense for replies about other companies to be about their revenue, also.
Post 01 Mar 2009, 05:06
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tom tobias



Joined: 09 Sep 2003
Posts: 1320
Location: usa
tom tobias
Azu wrote:
The original post is about a certain company's revenue going down, so it only makes sense for replies about other companies to be about their revenue, also.
You are not wrong, but, in my opinion, the original post concerned more than revenues. I believe, perhaps incorrectly, that the original post was forecasting a brighter future for Apple and Google, than Microsoft, based, largely, on
Quote:
high and record revenue increases...

My response, perhaps, as implied in your gentle rebuke, off topic, was based on this component of the original post:
drhowarddrfine wrote:
...Microsoft also states the future is uncertain.
In other words, if the "future is uncertain" for M$, then, it will also be uncertain, in my opinion, for ALL THREE companies, not simply M$. The original post implied, without explicitly suggesting, that an investment today in Google, or Apple, would be more profitable than a comparable investment in M$, and my rejoinder represented an attempt to sound a note of caution to anyone on the forum who thought in a similar vein.

I do not invest in companies which violate the principles of investing elaborated by Benjamin Graham, particularly the admonition to avoid companies which are overvalued, as both Google and Apple are. Graham's formula is very simple: The price to book value of the company multiplied by the price to earnings ratio, must be less than 22.


Last edited by tom tobias on 25 Mar 2009, 17:54; edited 3 times in total
Post 01 Mar 2009, 11:49
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drhowarddrfine



Joined: 10 Jul 2007
Posts: 535
drhowarddrfine
tom tobias wrote:
Graham's formula is very simple: The price to book value of the company multiplied by the price to earnings ratio, must be less than 22.
William O'Neil would disagree with the importance of that but it does play a role.
Quote:
pay a dividend greater than 6% per year
Dividends are inconsequential for me. I can make far more on price alone, but I never hold long term. Most of Graham's points, iirc, are for those who hold long term, but that's not something I would tell anyone to do. Of course, that depends on one's definition of long term. I evaluate all my stocks every 3 months but look at them every day. I trade something every week or so.

Quote:
I am extremely conservative, and those who envision Google and Apple as representing two good investments would find this philosophy, outlined here, as absurd, and I would not quarrel with their assessment.
Well, there ya go. Smile I am not conservative at all, but I agree I would not buy Apple or Google now. (I bought Apple years ago when it dropped to around $10 and sold it around $50. Too soon but, as they say, no one is wrong for selling at a profit.)

I'm a technical trader but more along the lines of William O'Neil. I also watch the financials. I used to daytrade (as in watching the minute by minute variations) but that's stupid. Anyway, I don't do trading with formulas because I feel the price changes with emotions. If those emotions are based on financials, that's fine, but the chart shows what's really happening, not what might happen.

Yes, two different philosophies of how to do things.

Quote:
If I were compelled to choose from among the three companies mentioned in the original message, I would choose MSFT
I had shorted Microsoft after its bubble up to $28 and did well. I don't think right now is the time to buy them though I could change my mind next week. This week was a pretty bad sell off.
Post 01 Mar 2009, 16:30
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comrade



Joined: 16 Jun 2003
Posts: 1137
Location: Russian Federation
comrade
Shame on you dirty capitalist.
Post 02 Mar 2009, 01:00
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drhowarddrfine



Joined: 10 Jul 2007
Posts: 535
drhowarddrfine
For shorting? There is no shame in that.
Post 02 Mar 2009, 01:46
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tom tobias



Joined: 09 Sep 2003
Posts: 1320
Location: usa
tom tobias
comrade wrote:

Shame on you dirty capitalist.
Most capitalists are relatively clean, though, my basketball gear doesn't always meet with the Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval.

On the other hand, investment is not readily accepted as something useful, but without it, one is simply a consumer or saver, instead of an inventor, creator, facilitator.

Some investments pay off. Others do not. Not too much different really in the world of computer programming.

For those interested, here's a web site, one among many, where a person can track a hypothetical portfolio, free of any cost. http://finviz.com/portfolio.ashx
Access is confidential, and the web site also has a useful screening tool. I used this site's portfolio manager to monitor hypothetical purchases of six stocks: goog, msft, appl, ceo, cht, pwe. Edit: The value of each stock "purchased" using this tool corresponds to the closing price of the preceding day, I guess that was the price on Monday 02 March 2009.


Last edited by tom tobias on 25 Mar 2009, 18:00; edited 2 times in total
Post 03 Mar 2009, 10:29
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LocoDelAssembly
Your code has a bug


Joined: 06 May 2005
Posts: 4633
Location: Argentina
LocoDelAssembly
Isn't it some kind of lack of morality or ethics in investing on a company you bitched on this forum countless times?

I haven't said anything before because I was expecting it to be a joke but apparently it is not Confused
Post 03 Mar 2009, 15:06
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comrade



Joined: 16 Jun 2003
Posts: 1137
Location: Russian Federation
comrade
drhowarddrfine wrote:
For shorting? There is no shame in that.


Just kidding

_________________
comrade (comrade64@live.com; http://comrade.ownz.com/)
Post 03 Mar 2009, 17:26
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pelaillo
Missing in inaction


Joined: 19 Jun 2003
Posts: 878
Location: Colombia
pelaillo
Quote:

Isn't it some kind of lack of morality or ethics in investing on a company you bitched on this forum countless times?

Merely a lack of logic or a firm believing that bitching on this forum was irrelevant to the outcome of that company Wink
Post 06 Mar 2009, 14:39
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HyperVista



Joined: 18 Apr 2005
Posts: 691
Location: Virginia, USA
HyperVista
A little clarification on what drhowarddrfine is doing. He's not investing in Microsoft anticipating and hoping the stock will go up. He's "shorting" Microsoft stock because he believes the price will go down soon. It's a little counterintuitive. Here's a link to an article explaining the concept of "short selling stock". drhowarddrfine is not breaking a morale barrier in bashing Microsoft while at the same time "shorting" their stock. He's betting his money where his beliefs are, that Microsoft basically sucks and their stock is about to drop.
Post 06 Mar 2009, 15:23
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LocoDelAssembly
Your code has a bug


Joined: 06 May 2005
Posts: 4633
Location: Argentina
LocoDelAssembly
But, if I understand correctly, he invested on Microsoft in first place, otherwise he could not do any shorting, no?

Lets put an hypothetical example to make it clear: lets suppose someone is shorting stock for "Terrorists Inc.". That would be completely moral? How that money was invested on a criminal company in the first place?
Post 06 Mar 2009, 17:07
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HyperVista



Joined: 18 Apr 2005
Posts: 691
Location: Virginia, USA
HyperVista
He's not buying the stock from Microsoft. Microsoft doesn't get any of his money. He's "borrowing" the Microsoft stock from another investor who actually owns it. He sells the "borrowed" stock today with a promise to the owner of that stock that he will replace it next week. If the stock goes down (which is what he is hoping) then it costs him less to replace the borrowed stock than the money he earned from selling the borrowed stock, therefore he makes money from falling stock prices. To summarize, he never purchased the stock, he simply borrowed the stock from another investor and replaced it later with the same stock that costs less at that time he returns it. He never gave money to Microsoft (except to purchase the stock he has to return to the investor he borrowed it from and thanks Microsoft for sucking so much). He profits from Microsoft sucking. It's like betting on a horse to lose a race.
Post 06 Mar 2009, 17:25
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