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Author
mbr_tsr

Joined: 03 Apr 2011
Posts: 4903
mbr_tsr
when you flip a coin heads tails...
i bet you \$5 that the coin will land on tails...why...
because last toss it landed on heads...
if the coin lands on heads there is 99% chance next toss it will land on tails...
if the coin lands on heads 2 times in a row there is a 200% chance it will land on tails...so if it lands on heads next toss i will bet tails....lands on heads twice i will bet a lot more on tails because of the boost in probability.

a coin toss in not always 50% chance if you guess based on results of previous tosses. So the side the coin lands on most often loses it's luck when it appears.
10 Apr 2014, 21:17
revolution
When all else fails, read the source

Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 17450
revolution
Heads I win. Tails you lose.

Hehe, 200% chance! I would bet the casinos are very happy to see you walk in the door.
11 Apr 2014, 00:49
sleepsleep

Joined: 05 Oct 2006
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sleepsleep
this is really interesting,
because, what is the probability of continuously having tail for more than 5 times?

i just tossed my coin, and it is actually hard to have it same for 5 times,
maybe some sort of random algo are programmed inside our matrix.
11 Apr 2014, 06:52
revolution
When all else fails, read the source

Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 17450
revolution
sleepsleep wrote:
this is really interesting,
because, what is the probability of continuously having tail for more than 5 times?
1 in 2^6. Nothing unexpected. But unless your coin has a memory, and could somehow alter it's own orientation, then the next flip after getting 6 tails in a row will still have a 50/50 chance of another tail. Don't fall for the gamblers fallacy. Unless you own a casino then you are doomed to lose money betting on runs, and such like thing, if you believe there can be a 200% chance of something happening.
11 Apr 2014, 06:57
sleepsleep

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sleepsleep
now, could a coin tail for 20 toss?
or 50 toss,

i don't believe it could toss tail for 20 to 50 continuously,

and wouldn't this increase the chances of head by each toss?
11 Apr 2014, 07:07
revolution
When all else fails, read the source

Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 17450
revolution
Unless you are manipulating the throw in some way then the chance at each toss is always 50%.
11 Apr 2014, 07:10
sleepsleep

Joined: 05 Oct 2006
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sleepsleep
the chances of each toss is always 50% if without any data on previous result.

if we can't have this naturally, maybe, something is program to let it not happen, since we got a 50/50 for each toss.
11 Apr 2014, 07:23
revolution
When all else fails, read the source

Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 17450
revolution
sleepsleep wrote:
the chances of each toss is always 50% if without any data on previous result.
The only way to deviate from 50% is if the coin is biased or you throw it in a "special" way. Otherwise, if you have an unbiased coin and throw it in an unpredictable "normal" way then you will have 50% chance no matter how much prior data you have collected.
11 Apr 2014, 07:29
revolution
When all else fails, read the source

Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 17450
revolution
sleepsleep wrote:
1 in 2^20.
11 Apr 2014, 07:30
sleepsleep

Joined: 05 Oct 2006
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sleepsleep
i don't think so...

like a dice, 6 faces, it is hard to throw a direct continuous 10 times of a particular number. (assume one got to throw it from the height of 2 meters)

it seems continuous throw of a same head/tail or same number of dice don't happen in our matrix world.

even with a 50/50 chances.
11 Apr 2014, 07:33
revolution
When all else fails, read the source

Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 17450
revolution
sleepsleep wrote:
like a dice, 6 faces, it is hard to throw a direct continuous 10 times of a particular number. (assume one got to throw it from the height of 2 meters)
1 in 6^10 = 1 in 60,466,176. So yes, it is unlikely, but not impossible.
11 Apr 2014, 07:36
sleepsleep

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sleepsleep
this actually is interesting,
if one get a coin and toss it 100 times, (from the height of 1 or 2 meter)
would the result balance? or near balance?

does this somehow mean our world is programed to balance?
11 Apr 2014, 07:46
revolution
When all else fails, read the source

Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 17450
revolution
The distribution of expected results follows the binomial distribution which peaks at the centre and falls away towards each end.
11 Apr 2014, 07:49
sid123

Joined: 30 Jul 2013
Posts: 340
Location: Asia, Singapore
sid123
Well, at first if you make a tables of heads/tails with very less trials, then the difference between heads and tails will be very high (mostly) but as your model will become larger the variations will decrease.
11 Apr 2014, 08:31
sleepsleep

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sleepsleep
so, everything works like water now, or gravity is pulling its effect on random number generator too?
11 Apr 2014, 13:48
asmhack

Joined: 01 Feb 2008
Posts: 431
asmhack
mbr_tsr wrote:
when you flip a coin heads tails...
i bet you \$5 that the coin will land on tails...why...
because last toss it landed on heads...
if the coin lands on heads there is 99% chance next toss it will land on tails...
if the coin lands on heads 2 times in a row there is a 200% chance it will land on tails...so if it lands on heads next toss i will bet tails....lands on heads twice i will bet a lot more on tails because of the boost in probability.

a coin toss in not always 50% chance if you guess based on results of previous tosses. So the side the coin lands on most often loses it's luck when it appears.

You are right, but that's nothing new, we all know that coins are packed with a boolean memory chip that stores the result of it's last flip for future use.
12 Apr 2014, 01:40
sleepsleep

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sleepsleep
then how the explanation for there is no straight head or tail for 10 continuous toss?
at least, it would be really damn hard to toss such result,
12 Apr 2014, 13:30
revolution
When all else fails, read the source

Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 17450
revolution
sleepsleep wrote:
then how the explanation for there is no straight head or tail for 10 continuous toss?
Basic statistics explains it perfectly, 1 in 2^10. What more do you want?
12 Apr 2014, 13:47
sleepsleep

Joined: 05 Oct 2006
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sleepsleep
revolution wrote:
sleepsleep wrote:
then how the explanation for there is no straight head or tail for 10 continuous toss?
Basic statistics explains it perfectly, 1 in 2^10. What more do you want?

i mean, why it is not common to toss such result, when each toss have 50/50?
12 Apr 2014, 14:07
baldr

Joined: 19 Mar 2008
Posts: 1651
baldr
sleepsleep wrote:
i mean, why it is not common to toss such result, when each toss have 50/50?
Because you can get straight 10 heads only one way, 9 heads and 1 tail can be thrown in 10 distinct ways (thus being 10 times more probable), 8 heads and 2 tails in 45 ways and so on.
12 Apr 2014, 18:20
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